Develop a Methodology for Cyber-Electronic Warfare Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) using Game Theory
Navy SBIR 2014.1 - Topic N141-078
ONR - Ms. Lore Anne Ponirakis - [email protected]
Opens: Dec 20, 2013 - Closes: Jan 22, 2014

N141-078 TITLE: Develop a Methodology for Cyber-Electronic Warfare Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) using Game Theory

TECHNOLOGY AREAS: Information Systems, Battlespace

RESTRICTION ON PERFORMANCE BY FOREIGN CITIZENS (i.e., those holding non-U.S. Passports): This topic is "ITAR Restricted". The information and materials provided pursuant to or resulting from this topic are restricted under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), 22 CFR Parts 120 - 130, which control the export of defense-related material and services, including the export of sensitive technical data. Foreign Citizens may perform work under an award resulting from this topic only if they hold the "Permanent Resident Card", or are designated as "Protected Individuals" as defined by 8 U.S.C. 1324b(a)(3). If a proposal for this topic contains participation by a foreign citizen who is not in one of the above two categories, the proposal will be rejected.

OBJECTIVE: This SBIR topic proposes the use of game theoretic modeling to quantify the contribution of information related capabilities (Computer Network Attack (CNA), Computer Network Exploitation (CNE), and Electronic Attack (EA)) to the warfighting outcome. The model should enable comparative analysis between information related capabilities and traditional kinetic fires (artillery, mortars, & close air support) during mission planning.

DESCRIPTION: Future Marine Corps Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF) operations will be characterized by smaller, more agile units operating in a distributed environment facing a broad array of friendly and enemy networked communication and computer-based systems. To be effective in this complex battlespace, Marines at all echelons will be required to leverage technology to create a collaborative environment to coordinate ground and airborne non-kinetic capabilities, synchronized with traditional fires. To adequately integrate these fires, metrics are required to make trade-offs between Cyber/EW systems and air and ground weapons systems. The purpose of this research is to develop a methodology based on game theoretical models to quantify the value of cyber exploits and electronic attack within the context of relevant mission threads to rapidly inform decisions made on the battlefield.

PHASE I: Conduct a full factorial design of experiment (DOE) to identify input variables and response variables that adequately describe the cyber terrain for full spectrum MAGTF operations. Using those input variables and response variables, create a game theoretic framework for tactical decision making that can assess the relative value of Cyber/EW applications to the warfighting outcome. Researchers should reference the 2012 paper by Schramm, Alderson, Carlyle, and Dmitrov to guide their work. The deliverable for this phase is an academic paper detailing the results of the DOE and how those inputs and response variables are integrated into the development of the game theoretic model. This work will be at the UNCLASS level.

PHASE II: During Phase II, the research team will conduct a validation and verification (V&V) of the model developed in Phase I using three relevant tactical mission thread provided by the principle investigator. The deliverable for this phase is a detailed report on the V&V process and an explanation of any model modifications that were required based on the testing. This work will be classified at the TS//SI//NOFORN level.

PHASE III: Apply the game theoretic model validated in Phase II during a field test of the products developed for the FNT 13-03 FNC. The model should enable pre-mission Cyber/EW arsenal assessment and real-time tactical decision-making based on emerging threats detected in the Electromagnetic Environment (EME). The deliverable for this phase is a detailed assessment of the FNC based on the output from the game theoretic framework recorded during testing. The report should also include a methodology to apply game theory to both the Marine Corps Planning Process (MCPP) and decisions made within the Cyber/Electronic Warfare Coordination Cell (CEWCC) during tactical operations. This work will be classified at the TS//SI//NOFORN level.

PRIVATE SECTOR COMMERCIAL POTENTIAL/DUAL-USE APPLICATIONS: The methodologies developed in this SBIR topic will enable warfighters to populate and select Cyber/EW applications from an application mall within a tactical cloud architecture. The game theoretic framework will enable rapid comparative analysis between available applications required for specific mission sets. Currently, the private sector is quickly moving towards the usage of cloud architectures to increase collaboration. This type of collaboration and rapid assessment will be very useful for the MAGTF to conduct cyberspace operations at the tactical edge.

1. Fudenberg, D. and Tirole, J. (1991) Game Theory, Cambridge: MIT Press.

2. Schramm, H., Alderson, D., Carlyle, M., and Dimitrov, N. (2012) A Game Theoretic Model of Strategic Conflict in Cyberspace, Naval Postgraduate School.

3. Washburn, A. and Kress, M. (2009) Combat Modeling, New York, NY: Springer Press.

4. Shen, D., Chen, G., Blasch, E. and Tadda, G. (2007) A Markov Game Theoretic Approach for Cyber Situational Awareness. SPIE�s Defense and Security Symposium, Orlando, FL.

KEYWORDS: Game Theory, Operations Research, Analytic Baseline, Cyber/Electronic Warfare, Tactical Cloud Architectures

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