Prognostic Methods for Service Life Management of Digital Electronics Navy SBIR FY2005.2 Sol No.: Navy SBIR FY2005.2 Topic No.: N05-093 Topic Title: Prognostic Methods for Service Life Management of Digital Electronics Proposal No.: N052-093-0162 Firm: Expert Microsystems, Inc. 7932 Country Trail Drive Suite 1 Orangevale, California 95662-2120 Contact: Randall Bickford Phone: (916) 989-2018 Web Site: www.expmicrosys.com Abstract: We will provide an automated, prognostic decision making tool supporting Autonomic Logistics that predicts when digital electronics will fail to meet service requirements. Incipient fault-to-failure progression characteristics will be identified at the component and subsystem level to develop verifiable prognostic models driven by existing parameters and measurands. We will distinguish between normal equipment aging and slow failure modes. Accurate remaining useful life predictions will be facilitated and enhanced by our modular, open architecture that encourages use of multiple prediction and detection models, yielding highly accurate, timely, extensible, and flexible real-time PHM solutions. False alarms will be reduced significantly using our patented mode partitioning which recognizes distinct operating states and does not alarm when changing between modes. In Phase I, we will develop self-calibrating fault detection models that update dynamically and continuously to individual assets and to changes in individual assets over time. Useful life models and feasibility demonstration prototypes will be developed in the Option Phase with feedback provided by a top-tier JSF contractor. Proven software, system knowledge, and data gained from prior successful PHM USAF SBIR work will enhance and expedite our performance on this NAVAIR project. Self-funded, cost-sharing participation from an industry-leading electronics provider will enhance project success. Benefits: Benefits:  Improved decision support accuracy, timeliness, and fewer false alarms, including identification of slowly occurring failures.  Affordable solution tailored for and compatible with NAVAIR assets and applications, and meeting PHM Autonomic Logistics objectives  PHM solutions, including useful life remaining models, tailored for digital electronic boards and components which decrease maintenance costs, improve control systems response, and increase safety  Plug-in architecture encourages multi-vendor solutions  Automatic screening and elimination of bad input data  Less time and effort required for model training procedures  Real-time analysis of very large data sets and variables inherent to JSF high-performance and complex systems Potential Commercial Applications: Commercial applications are characterized by very large data sets with many variables requiring real-time responsiveness. Military and heavy industrial applications for high-performance, safety-critical complex assets have been our historical markets. Return